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The Curious Luck of Tom Brady

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Comments (23)
  1. George Savage says:

    You can refuse declaring Tom Brady being GOAT as long as you want but that conversation is over. Seriously, man, you don’t look rational by being so stubborn. I told you before SB LI that when (not if) Brady wins his 5th ring, that conversation will be absolutely over. Which world are you living in? Just watch TV, Social Media, etc. 99% of people agree that now Brady is the greatest QB ever. Most people even think that he is the greatest football player ever. Now the conversation is whether or not Tom Brady is the greatest athlete ever (better than Michael Jordan). Opinions are split on that. However, Brady is not done yet. If he wins his 6th ring, that conversation also will be over.
    By the way, at the beginning of the 2016 season, you were so confident that “Brady is going to suck.” O yes, he sucked so much that he broke all kinds of records in Super Bowl history.
    You would do for yourself a favor if you stop talking about Patriots/Brady/Belichick. Please stop hurting yourself and find other topics to talk about. 🙂

    1. George, you are only proving my point, there will always be those enamored & fooled by numbers without considering all the circumstances. Now you are both claiming “99% of people agree” Brady is the best (not true, just more hyperbole), and now go so far as to suggest Tom Brady may be the best “athlete” ever, yet I’m the one who is irrational? Its obvious you are a die-hard Pats fan, and its understandable to laud Brady as the best QB ever . But now your walk-on-water “delusion” of Brady’s athletic all-time greatness appears to far exceed my “delusion” that he isn’t the greatest QB ever.
      Wrt my claim that Brady would suck this last year, it was a pretty solid argument if you read the blog. The odds were very much for it. If I make the same prediction that Brady will suck at age 82, will you claim my prediction is irrational? If not, why? If you answer your own question you might see my logic. You do realize Brady will someday be too old to play, or don’t you agree with this either?
      And sorry, I’ll still keep talking about Brady like I did Montana in the 90s, because the story is how circumstances greatly overrate an athlete, and my blog on how this happened makes a pretty compelling case that Brady is now the most overrated athlete in the US.

  2. Dave says:

    I stumbled across your Brady vs Manning blog and read this: “There is a chance I could change my mind (about Brady being Better than Manning) if Brady continues to play well for several more of his codger years.”

    Well? What is your take?

    I think your arguments show bias. For example, Belichick being one of the greatest if all time. Belichick flourished because of Brady. Case and point: His record in Cleveland, his first season with the Patriots (5-11), and the first few games of Brady’s first year with Bledsoe (losing record). Regarding the 11-5 argument. The team was 16-0 the previous year. That is a five loss difference. If the Patriots were 10-6 in 2007 and went 5-11 in 2008, that would be a five game swing. 16-0 to 11-5 is not something that Belichick should get so much credit for. Also, regarding the “what if Manning/Brady were on the Browns” discussion, you simply don’t know. Looking at your two blogs, you seem to have bias against Brady. I’m a 49ers fan by the way, and hate the Patriots. But when Brady retires, he may have every record in the book (Another aside…you never note Manning’s stats as being higher due to playing in a dome…if Brady played in a dome I would guess you would hold this against him). He will have every record and at least five Super Bowls. If he isn’t the greatest, what exactly would he need to do? I am honestly curious, but my guess is that with a sixth Super Bowl you still wouldn’t give the man his due. Time for some reflection on your part I think. I gave up holding on to Montana, my favorite player, as the greatest ever after seeing this last Super Bowl. I was wrong to hold onto that, because honestly I hate the Patriots. Time for you to own up to that fact too…

    1. Hi Dave… Thanks for the thoughtful post. Everyone has a bias, just as you had a bias toward Montana. I used the same argument back then, that circumstance, not raw talent, is why Montana was labeled “the greatest” by many pundits. How would people had reacted had Brady lost even half the SBs? His 1st SB win had little to do with him, and every single SB’s outcome changes on any one single play going the other way. You could say that about two of Montana’s SBs, but not all 4. Are you telling me that the Pats won that game because Brady is the greatest of all time, that Montana, Elway, Marino would not have been able to do the same? Brady is the most accomplished QB of all time, but no way is he the most supreme, talented player at the position, he had a ton of good fortune and circumstance come his way, as even he acknowledges.


  3. George Savage says:

    I agree with Dave 100%. Even though you are one of the “Never Brady” supporters, you should give the man his dues. Define for me the greatest. What else he has to do to prove that he is the greatest QB of all time. Overwhelming majority of former and current NFL players now consider Brady as the GOAT. Sorry Fred but you have no credibility. Your blogs remind me “Fake News” that we see a lot nowadays. 🙂
    For example, I think Troy Aikman who himself is first ballot hall of famer has more credibility than you.
    Just watch this:

    1. George, two things.

      1) I already defined what I mean by greatest – being the best player ever at the position. By the logic you’ve used, you are defining greatest to be the most accomplished player ever at the position. If that were the proper way to define “greatest”, then I would be a G.O.A.T. right along with you! But you just don’t want to get it through your east coast thick as New England fog skull that I am basing my argument on what I believe “greatest” means. 🙂
      2) What is fake news is your claim that the 99% of former and current players consider him to be the GOAT. There is no doubt in my mind that its the majority, but overwhelming majority, 99%? People love to throw this 99% number around, as if they are building credibility by not just saying 99.9% or 100%. This is similar to the fake news that man and chimp share 99% similarity, that 99% of scientists believe in global warming, etc. I know quite a few on the radio who share my view that Brady is great but not the best ever.

      Brady took the reign from Montana as the M.O.A. in NFL history. That would be “most overrated athlete”. I actually like both Montana and Brady. We share pretty similar worldviews and both are standup guys. I do hope Brady runs against that Pocahantas clown you have up there and I might very well donate to his campaign if he does. But I also know these guys were the beneficiaries of very good circumstances that elevated them beyond the reputation they would have had otherwise, had they been saddled with less favorable circumstances (e.g. drafted by Detroit or Cleveland).

  4. Angel says:

    Peyton’s best defenses :

    Colts 2002 :
    7th scoring, 8th in yards, LOST in WC round.

    Colts 2005 :
    2nd scoring,11th in yards, LOST division round.

    Colts 2007 :
    1st scoring, 3rd in yards LOST in division round.

    Colts 2008 :
    8th scoring, 11th in yards, LOST in WC round.

    Broncos 2012 :
    4th scoringt, 2nd in yards, LOST division round.

    Broncos 2014 :
    16th scoring,3rd in yards, LOST in division round.

    Payton “not having a defense”  it’s just a myth, concocted by Peyton’s fanboys to justify his underachieving, when it came to playoffs clutch performances.

  5. Angel says:

    Manning’s replacements (Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Kerry Collins), COULDN’T PLAY FOR SH@#T!
    They all threw for 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions COMBINED!!!
    As soon as the Colts got Andrew Luck, they went 11-5.
    Coincidence? ?? Pffft..! …..Please…
    All the Colts needed was a serviceable quarterback coming out of college.

    Matt Cassel got a team that had just gone 18 – 1 the year before. He did ok against the bad teams, and lost to the good teams. He still managed to throw 21 touchdowns to 14 interceptions.
    That’s better than Peyton’s replacements

    Not only that, Matt Cassel, then went on to have a better career year with the Chiefs, during his second year led the team to a 
    10-6 season with
    27 touchdowns,
     7 interceptions,
    1 playoff game, and
    1 pro bowl.

    I guess the “system” in Kansas was better than Belichick’s, huh?

    1. LOL. How do you really feel? Cassel went 9 of 18 for 70 yards passing, zero touchdown passes, and three interceptions in that playoff game you mention. And pro bowl doesn’t mean much anymore since just about every QB has a chance since so many of them sit. But that wasn’t the point of this blog. Brady is now the most overrated player in all of sports. Do you dispute the fact that any 1 play changes in any of the 7 Super Bowls and he could just as easily be 0 for 7? He’s a great QB, but no way is he the best ever.

  6. Angel says:

    Manning went a STACKED Broncos team, that had already won a playoff game with freaking TIM TEBOW the year before!

    Also, Manning was SAT DOWN when he couldn’t perform in Kubiak’s system…….and the Broncos went 5-2 WITH OSWEILER!

  7. Angel says:

    Question :
    Why is it that every Pats hater blabbers about Vinatieri kicking a winning field goal in their first three Super Bowl wins??

    Vinatieri kicked IN THE FIRST TWO, NOT vs The Eagles, that’s it!

    1. Not a lie, a mistake. It wasn’t a game winner vs the Eagles, though it was their last points. I’ve corrected the article. Thanks!

  8. Angel says:

    I had no idea Vinatieri was the one who got the ball in the 4th quarter vs the Rams, with 00:40 seconds left on the clock & no timeouts from his own 20, to then drive down to the Rams 30, to then kick the ball himself, with 00:07 seconds left on the clock.

    Also, I had no idea that Vinatieri repeated the same feat vs the Panthers, with 1:09 left in the 4th, throwing the ball from his own 40, driving down to Carolina’s 23, to then kick the ball himself with 00:09 seconds left on the clock.
    I’m guessing VINATIERI THREW FOR 354 YARDS, WITH 3 TOUCHDOWNS and ONLY 1 INTERCEPTION in that game, right?


  9. Angel says:

    Another thing :

    Why fault Brady for winning Super Bowl 49 by 4 points on a defensive play?
    Brady put up 28 points on the board. Did you want him to put up 88 points, instead?

    Let’s be honest, had he put up 88 points on the board, and won by 4 points on a defensive play, you’d still find a way to try to diminish his greatness.

    Don’t forget that Malcolm Butler was the one who allowed Jermaine Kearse to make that fluky lucky circus catch, to keep the Seahawks in the game.
    It’s a good thing that he (Malcolm) redeemed himself at the end.
    It would’ve been a shame, since that night Tom Brady tied, broke and extended 9 Super Bowl records.

    “It’s over Johnny”.

  10. Angel says:

    Stop putting down the AFC East. How you ever noticed the “world beaters from the AFC South” Peyton had to face under his dome for so long?

    Give me a break.

  11. Ica Clappsaddle says:

    Oh wait, this is just some stupid sports opinion blog. No wonder it’s a bunch of chair-jockey nonsense.

  12. tom brady says:

    Finally someone with some sense. Just watch Brady’s highlights, its a bunch of screens or short passes to wide open receivers who then do damage. Often fans watch Brady and say, huh, I could have made that throw, However, if you watch a clearly superior qb like rodgers, you can tell he is special. Despite having no talent around him year after year, and a lousy system, rodgers outperforms every other quarterback, and yet is hated on by espn and many in the media. Brady himself admitted rodgers in the patriots system would have 7000 yards a year.

    If you call him a dink and dunk quarterback, they say its cause hes smart, not because of his receivers. If you say he never gets touched, they say its because he is so smart and good he gets the ball out, not bc of the consistently top rated oline over his career. If you say hes not good on the deep ball, they point to the rings. If you point out how the patriots have led the league in beneficial penalties each of the last 5 seasons, you are called a sore sport. If you mention how the falcons blew it and dropped multiple interceptions, they say youre crying.

    Tldr, he is at best lucky, at worst the beneficiary of a lot of cheating.

  13. Trent says:

    If you want to sound credible, try making the argument more objective. Your addendums after the patriots continued to dominate the league sounded desperate and pathetic. You do a very poor job of trying to save face by essentially saying “don’t get me wrong, he is great” after every excuse you make for his opponents. My head is spinning at how far you are reaching. I promise you, admitting you are wrong and moving on will make you look much more professional than continuing to build on this nonsense.

    1. Hi Trent,

      Plenty of others see what I see, and Pats fans see what they see. From USA Today:

      Opinion: Super Bowl LIII was more proof Bill Belichick never needed Tom Brady to win a ring

  14. John Locke says:

    I have always found Brady’s uncanny good luck to be a much undervalued element of his success (by “luck” i mean unexpected outcomes, good or bad). The complete ineptitude of his divisional rivals, the dozen or so favorable calls in the most important moments of the most important games, the good bounces, even the improbable good health he’s enjoyed- it’s almost unbelievable. That doesn’t even include the stellar plays from teammates leading to Super Bowl victories that otherwise would likely (or in at least two obvious cases, certainly) been loses. I don’t include most of those plays in the category of “luck” because those players were simply performing at the level one would expect (i.e Vinateiri is an exceptional kicker). I can think of no other athlete in the history of televised sport that has enjoyed so much good fortune for such a sustained amount of time. Obviously Tom is a great quarterback. He has never been truly terrible in any game I’ve seen him play(and as a New Englander I’ve seen just about all of them). I would take him over just about any signal caller in the SB era with maybe the exception of Rogers or Manning. He’s certainly better than many multiple Super Bowl winners like Bradshaw, Elway or Staubach. But despite his talent, there is no denying his incredible playoff and Super Bowl success is more contingent on luck than one could reasonably expect. Some of that is due to his longevity. Far more opportunities for luck to be generated. But with a larger sample size it would be expected good and bad luck would average out. Bad bounces would occur that would occur that would undermine the probability of success, calls would go against his team at crucial times that would steal away almost certain victory. Yes, instances of bad luck have occurred over the Brady timeline. At least one lucky play in particular– in reasonable probability– led to a Super Bowl loss. But bad luck for Brady occurred at nowhere near the rate fortuitous, almost astounding, good fortune has. Even if you are not Brady fan it becomes humorous to watch. I often find myself laughing while watching Brady’s improbable (though seemingly inevitable) comebacks or weaseling from the clutches of certain defeat. It becomes a game you play with yourself: what strange rule will be invoked, what extraordinary play from one of his teammates, what blunder of Tom’s will be undone by a timely penalty against the defense? It’s like watching a Disney movie. Definitely the most fun sports figure to watch over the past 2 decades, if watching the improbable become reality is your thing. And I can’t imagine it wouldn’t be, unless you just hate a winner.

    1. Floreshiem Shue says:

      The sad side of the pro-Brady argument is how often you will hear the same cherry-picked arguments from true believers. “Brady drove the ball such and such amount of yards with only such and such amount of time left”; “Brady threw for such and such amount of yards and such an such touchdowns”. When the team has success, according to these idolaters, it’s always due to Brady’s greatness. When they lose it’s the team’s (or anyone BUT Brady’s) inadequate play or poor coaching.

      To reiterate, no one is saying Brady can’t throw a football, but it’s not reasonable to conclude a lot of his success can be attributed to an uneven portion of good luck. Vinateiri misses two field goals, Butler doesn’t make an extraordinarily improbable interception, Atlanta makes ONE decent play in the last 25 minutes, and Brady loses half dozen Super Bowls, and the same people who think he’s the GOAT now, are saying he never did quite enough to win in the big games.

      Here’s the thing: the original poster’s thesis is absolutely correct. Brady could very easily be 0-fer in Super Bowls (and have missed his 1st and last if the tuck rule and Dee Ford’s foot go uncalled). He could also be 9-0. That’s just too many narrow victories coming down favorably on his side for me to concede his superiority over anyone who’s ever played the position.

      What the Brady sycophants don’t want to recognize is essentially it’s a TEAM game and the fact that Brady played for very good teams his whole career (another lucky break) has inflated (no pun intended) his status as a player. If drafted to any number of mediocre (not even bad) teams his status would very possibly have been equal to Dan Fouts, Dan Marino or, best case scenario, John Elway, but almost certainly not the undisputed best ever. He is now, once again playing for a very talented team. He certainly makes the team even better, maybe even enough to win the Super Bowl. But if he wins again while down two points with a minute to go, having gotten a call to extend the drive, even the most ardent fan will have to consider his good fortune far outweighs his bad. But somehow I doubt they will.

      1. Great points FLORESHIEM, I too doubt the ardent fan and Brady sycophant will ever consider even an iota of the good fortune that has inflated his status. Like John Locke said before you, its more like watching a Disney movie, and many choose not to live in reality.

    2. Love your post John! It is like watching a Disney movie!

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