As we approach September 5 and the start of the new NFL season, plenty of fans will browse the schedule to parse where their teams will be at the end of the regular season. Of course, some won’t look too far ahead, preferring to see if they can get a good start or when and where they’ll play their rivals.
The schedule does matter, although it is not always agreed upon how much it matters. The SoS (Strength of Schedule) is the metric that promotes debate among statisticians, rather than being something casual fans tend to worry about. Yet, it is useful, even if it is flawed.
The NFL recently published a guide to the SoS for 2025, which pointed out how having the toughest schedule has impacted teams over the past decade (more than later). Let’s look at it for 2025 and see if it really matters for teams.
What is SoS?
First, though, what is SoS? It’s a ranking of each team’s schedule based on their opponents' performances in the previous season. An average is taken across the 17 games the team will play, settling on a metric like .550, which would mean their opponents' combined win/loss total was 159-130 across 289 games. .550 is usually toward the upper-end, representing a tougher-than-average SoS.
Right off the bat, you can probably spot the flaw in the metric. Teams can improve and get worse in the offseason, so just because Team A was good last season does not mean it will be good this season. You can argue that using individual NFL lines from sportsbooks would be a more accurate way of gauging strength, yet sportsbooks will also take previous seasons’ results into their calculations. Nevertheless, you can also appreciate that SoS at least offers some merit.
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SoS in 2025
The Giants have the toughest SoS for the 2025 season, coming in at .574. They are just ahead of the Lions and Bears (both .571) and reigning Super Bowl champions, the Philadelphia Eagles (.571). At the other end of the scale, the 49ers have the most manageable schedule on paper (.415), followed by the Saints (.419) and Patriots (.429).
The NFL also provided some data, showing that the teams with the toughest SoS failed to qualify for the Playoffs in five of the last seven seasons. The two exceptions were the Eagles in 2023 and the Steelers in 2021, both of which exited in the Wild Card Round. Bear in mind that this is a small sample size.
Interestingly, the teams with the easiest SoS over the past seven seasons didn’t set the world alight, making the Playoffs in just three of those seasons. None of the teams in the past three seasons (Saints, Falcons twice) finished the campaign with a winning record.
Pointless or Important?
The Chicago Bears have one of the most demanding schedules this season, but it is somewhat skewed because they will play their three NFC North rivals twice, all of whom made the Playoffs last season. It’s a simple part of the equation: being in a tough division will make your schedule all the more difficult. Additionally, there’s the pairing up of conference/interconference games based on last year’s finishing positions. This can make a team that finished at the top (see the Lions and Eagles) of a strong division have a strict schedule.
Statistically, it might seem like it matters greatly, but it depends on the team. When the 2024 schedule was worked out, the 49ers were judged a strong team, but they ended up being fairly terrible. On the flip side, you can almost guarantee that some teams considered weak going into the new season will be excellent, like the Washington Commanders last season. In the end, SoS is useful, but only up to a point.
