The 2024 NBA Finals are now set, with the Boston Celtics ready to face off against the Dallas Mavericks. It’s an intriguing match-up, pitting the No.1 seeds from the Eastern Conference against a previously unfancied Western Conference team that grew into the season. There are plenty of sub-plots, too: Kyrie Irving’s return to Boston, the MVP clash between Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic, and the pressure on a Boston team that is expected to deliver.
Yet, an interesting factor in the Finals is Boston’s home-court advantage. The first two games will be played at TD Garden, followed by two in Dallas, then alternating between Boston and Dallas up to Game 7 (if necessary). But Boston’s form at TD Garden has been crucial to its stellar season, and it could be crucial to determining the outcome. Indeed, it’s one of the main reasons why the Celtics are the clear favorites in the NBA Championship odds from leading sportsbooks. Home advantage can count for a lot.
Some great teams have slipped up in the past
Yet, on the other hand, history tells us that we should not overthink a great home record in the regular season. Boston went 37-4 at home in the regular season (6-2 in the Playoffs). The 37-4 record is not the best of all time – it just about cracks the top 15. But it is interesting to see how other teams fared when putting up better numbers. Below, we take a quick look at the top 8 best regular season home records and how the teams eventually fared:
Boston Celtics (1985-86): 40-1 – Won NBA Championship
San Antonio Spurs (2015-16): 40-1 – Lost in Western Conference Semis
Golden State Warriors (2015-16): 39-2 – Lost in NBA Finals
Chicago Bulls (1995-96): 39-2 – Won NBA Championship
Chicago Bulls (1996-97): 39-2 – Won NBA Championship
Boston Celtics (1986-87): 39-2 – Lost in NBA Finals
Cleveland Cavaliers (2008-09): 39-2 – Lost in Eastern Conference Finals
Orlando Magic (1994-95): 39-2 – Lost in NBA Finals
Now, the above list is probably a good example of how stats can be misleading. Indeed, you can look at it through a different couple of lenses. For a start, you might say that a 37.5% win rate (3 out of 8) in NBA Finals is a pretty turgid record for teams that posted such incredible numbers. On the other hand, it’s clear that teams with excellent home records go deep into the Playoffs, and that rings true the further you go down the list.
Boston can use TD Garden advantage
But getting back to 2024, the TD Garden advantage feels like it is important in terms of momentum. The opening two games feel really crucial to the series. If Boston goes 2-0, Celtics fans will be very confident going into Game 3. If Dallas can leave Boston with a win, tying the series at 1-1, you get a sense that the evolution that has characterized the team as the season progressed will continue.
Of course, it’s worth noting that the Celtics (27-14) also carried the NBA’s best record on the road in the regular season. Moreover, the Celtics have faced Dallas twice in the 2023/24 regular season, winning both times. So confidence will be high regardless. But stamping their authority at home in those first two games feels paramount. Yes, there have been a handful of examples where a team has come back from being 2-0 down in an NBA Finals series – the Bucks in 2021 were the most recent. But overall, the mountain is notoriously difficult to climb. If Boston can keep that edge – that psychological advantage – in the opening two games, there may be no way back for the Mavericks.
