The NFL is arguably the most parity-filled league in the world. The phrase “Any Given Sunday” is more relevant than ever, with upsets happening seemingly every weekend.
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Parity and unpredictable finishes raises an important question that we’ll attempt to answer. Is there a way to properly understand football rankings? Let’s dive into a few metrics that either support or negate the legitimacy of some of the latest NFL rankings.
Week 11 had three moneyline underdogs win outright. These teams included the Bears, Jaguars, and Broncos. All three held winning records prior to their victory, further demonstrating the parity of the NFL in 2025.
With these results in mind, let’s turn our attention toward the latest NFL Power Rankings released directly from the league’s website. There are a few surprising teams valued high in the top 10, including the Bills, Packers, and 49ers.
All three of these teams won in Week 11, which is why they were bumped up two to three spots from their last power ranking position. This feels a bit too reactive.
There’s a lot of emphasis placed on the Bills beating a floundering Tampa Bay defense, while overcoming their own run defense. Buffalo has allowed 5.4 YPC, second-worst in the NFL, and its led to a pair of surprising road losses against the Falcons and Dolphins.
The Packers needed a late go-ahead touchdown to beat a short-handed New York Giants offense that just fired former head coach Brian Daboll. Green Bay’s defense, featuring star edge rusher Micah Parsons, has bailed out quarterback Jordan Love and head coach Matt LaFleur’s stale offense against most of their opponents.
Finally, the 49ers, who just got QB1 Brock Purdy back from injury, shredded an underwhelming Arizona defense on the road. San Francisco’s defense remains banged up and has struggled to get stops this season, ranked bottom 12 in total points allowed.
While these three teams may be a bit overvalued, the Los Angeles Rams definitely deserve to be No. 1. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, after enduring a back injury during training camp, has been on fire, throwing 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last seven games.
Stafford led the Rams to a Super Bowl win during his first season in Los Angeles. Now, he’s set to add another Lombardi Trophy to his collection, ranked sixth in points scored per game (27.2) and second in points allowed (17.2) under head coach Sean McVay.
Football rankings may be predicated on data but a lot of it is subjective and reactive recency bias. Mediocre teams like the Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers have pulled off huge upsets on the road. Super Bowl favorites like the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Philadelphia Eagles have all lost a few matchups to allegedly inferior opponents.
The best way to understand football rankings is by taking into account various factors, including injuries, coaching, schedule, and weather. Even the worst teams in the league, like the Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders, have shown the ability to play well enough to make their opponent earn a win in the final minutes.
