NFL Pick'em contests seem simple. Itâs just a matter of picking a better team and betting that theyâll win. However, sometimes the easiest looking games can be among the hardest to predict. These are known as trap games.
The key to approaching this type of betting is not to assume that every game is a trap game. Instead, there are several warning signs to be aware of since those could indicate that you may be looking at a surprise outcome. In this article, weâll explore those signs.
What Is a Trap Game, Really?
A trap game is a matchup in which one team is heavily favored, but their path to victory is actually much more difficult than it may seem, and thereâs a real chance for an upset.
The most common example is that of a strong team playing a weaker opponent immediately before a major divisional or conference showdown. The favorite is looking ahead to a more important game, and the underdog sees their chance in it.
For Pick'em players, however, there is an important distinction between a trap game and an ordinary upset. The goal isnât to predict the outcome of every game, but to find ones when the advantage isnât completely warranted.
The 5 Biggest Trap Game Warning Signs
A Huge Rivalry Game Is Next Week
Try to look ahead towards the game coming after the one youâre betting on. If a strong favorite, facing a weak opponent, has an important matchup next, we may be looking at a trap game. It happens when the following game may have greater implications for playoff positioning, division standings or bragging rights.
It doesnât mean the team will deliberately overlook the opponent in front of them. But the surrounding schedule may be on their mind and affect the outcome.
The Favorite Is Coming Off an Emotional Win
An emotionally demanding game from the previous week could also have a similar effect. A team that just defeated a major rival, won a dramatic overtime game or pulled off an important comeback may not be fully committed to the next game. When this sign is combined with others on the list, it may strongly indicate a trap game.
The Underdog Has Extra Rest
NFL schedules are very demanding and the team that has had more rest has an advantage. A 2024 study of NFL games from 2002 through 2023 found that the traditional bye-week advantage had largely disappeared after changes to the league's collective bargaining rules.
Injuries, preparation, and scheduling all affect how well-rested the team is and especially for a team facing a stronger opponent.
Everyone in Your Pool Loves the Same Team
This is particularly important in Pick'em contests, since the goals are sometimes not the same as with betting against a point spread. A less popular selection carries greater potential to distinguish your entry, although it also carries greater risk of losing ground.
If your Pickâem platform provides that option, check the percentage of selections. It will show you how much leverage you would gain if going in the opposite direction.
The Line Feels Too Easy
Sportsbook lines can provide additional information. If a team has a substantially better record and appears superior in almost every obvious category, ask why the market has not created an even larger gap. Checking odds at a sportsbook such as Stake can help decide if other information points are contradictory. It also helps to check the Stake review to find out how the site sets its odds. CryptoManiaks has written about the rise of casinos that allow sports bets in crypto and various benefits they provide to players, most important of which is anonymity.
When Should You Actually Pick the Underdog?
Spotting a trap game is just the first step. The next one is to decide whether it pays off to bet on the underdog. In small office pools, the safest approach is often to stay with the stronger team. There's little value in taking unnecessary risks when only a handful of entries separate first and last place. However, with larger pools, there are benefits in going against the popular wisdom.
If an underdog actually has a path to victory, it may be the most lucrative way to go. Think of trap games as selective opportunities, not weekly predictions. Chances are big upsets wonât happen every Sunday.
Conclusion
Finding trap games is about finding the games in which an obvious favorite deserves another look. It could happen due to a difficult schedule, recent emotional workload, rest, player injuries, and Pick'em selection percentages. The bettors should check all of these before making a call.
Most importantly, don't label a game a trap simply because the favorite looks too good to be true. Finding trap games is usually just the first step and itâs best to investigate further before betting on the underdog.
