Picture the moment the final whistle sounded in Super Bowl LX. Seattle 29, New England 13. That vaunted "Dark Side" defense bulldozed a Patriots offense that had simply had the life suffocated out of it. Sam Darnold — the quarterback who had become a punchline, the guy every mock draft retrospective used as a cautionary tale — standing in the confetti storm at Levi's Stadium, finally a champion, and surprisingly, the first QB of a draft class that contained names like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Baker Mayfield to become one.
But here's the narrative surrounding Super Bowl LX that everyone overlooks. Neither the Seahawks nor the Patriots were supposed to be there. Seattle opened the 2025 season as a +6600 outsider with online betting sites. Reputable 5Gringos online sportsbook had New England even further out at +8000. Two of the longest shots on the board were suddenly playing for the Lombardi, much to the surprise of every power ranking that slotted them into wild-card-at-best territory.
Fast forward to the summer of 2026, and three franchises now stare down the 2026 season with talent, questions, and something to prove. They all watched that confetti fall in Santa Clara and thought the same thing: we're next.
Cincinnati Bengals: +2000
Superstar Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow lasted just two games before turf toe curtailed the vast majority of his season in September — the fourth significant injury of his career, each one arriving precisely when Cincinnati's window looked most open. Cincy had made the best start to a season of the Zac Taylor era prior to Joey B being carted off. Without him, they went 1-8.
Burrow would return on Thanksgiving to rejuvenate his side's fortunes, but the best the Bengals could muster up was a paltry 6-11. But watch what the front office did next, because it tells you everything about how this franchise finally seems to understand the situation.
They signed Boye Mafe — three years, $60 million — the edge rusher who ranked eighth in pass rush win rate in 2025 and was the engine of Seattle's Super Bowl-winning defense. They pulled Bryan Cook out of Kansas City — three years, $40.25 million — a safety who posted the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate among all safeties in the league. Then came the blockbuster: Dexter Lawrence, traded from the Giants for the tenth overall pick of the 2026 Draft, a three-time Pro Bowl interior anchor who collapses pockets from the inside. Jonathan Allen arrives on a two-year deal. A defense that was arguably one of the worst ever assembled last season has been rebuilt, piece by piece, from a Super Bowl champion's spare parts.
Mafe rushes. Lawrence collapses the pocket. Cook closes in the secondary. That's a different Bengals defense — one that might actually survive the moments when Burrow can't save them. But the skepticism is justified: multiple major injuries, an AFC still loaded, a franchise that keeps arriving at the same fork in the road. But here's the other truth. When Burrow is healthy, and Ja'Marr Chase is running routes — legitimate top-two receiver, full-stop — this offense is AFC championship-caliber.
The Chiefs' dynasty has fractured. The vacancy is real. Cincinnati is the most talented team positioned to fill the void. The entire bet is on 17 games of healthy Burrow. Given the history, that's a significant bet. Given the ceiling, it might be the most rational one on this list.
Chicago Bears: +2500
Ben Johnson watched a three-point overtime loss to the Rams in January and walked off the field knowing exactly what it meant. Not that his team wasn't good enough. That they almost were. Three points from the NFC Championship Game, in year two of his rebuild, with a 24-year-old quarterback still being filed under "next year" by half the league despite throwing for 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns, and posting a .600 winning percentage against playoff-caliber teams.
The Bears won the NFC North in 2025. They then earned Chicago's first playoff win in 15 years. And the national conversation still treated Caleb Williams like a promising project, rather than a quarterback who had just beaten good teams at a rate that would earn most veterans genuine MVP consideration. What happens when a more mature Williams enters year three inside a system Johnson has been building specifically around his skillset?
The offseason addressed the defense directly — Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman at 25th overall, Neville Gallimore and Devin Bush added in free agency, Zavion Thomas and Logan Jones drafted to deepen the supporting cast. The losses hurt — Kevin Byard to New England, Tremaine Edmunds to the Giants — but the deficiencies were targeted with real investment rather than wishful thinking.
The Seahawks were +6000, and nobody believed in them either. Chicago has watched that story unfold from closer than anyone. Johnson has the blueprint. Williams has the arm. And there's an underdog chip in that locker room that fits like a tailored suit.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +4500
Mike Evans is in a 49ers uniform now. Twelve seasons, franchise icon, the receiver who made Baker Mayfield's reinvention possible — gone to San Francisco in the spring. Lavonte David retired after 14 years without so much as a postseason run this decade. Head coach Todd Bowles fired five of his assistants in the offseason, including offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard and special teams coordinator Thomas McGaughey, because someone had to be accountable for what happened in 2025.
The Buccaneers started 6-2. They were a legitimate NFC contender. And then the injuries arrived in a wave — Evans, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White all missing significant time, Bucky Irving limited to 865 yards after clearing 1,500 the prior year — and Tampa lost seven of its final nine, shockingly missing the playoffs entirely on a tiebreaker that favored the rank outsider Carolina Panthers.
Can Mayfield win a Super Bowl without Evans? That's the question Tampa is betting $100 million of offseason capital to answer, and it doesn't have a clean answer yet. But Emeka Egbuka posted 938 receiving yards as a rookie in a compromised offense, and at 23 years old, looks every bit like a legitimate No. 1 receiver in development. The run defense ranked fifth in the NFL last season. Bowles is a defensive tactician with his back against the wall — historically, that's when he coaches with the most conviction.
The 6-2 start wasn't an accident; it was proof of ceiling. Health was the variable. If the injury bug spares them in 2026, their +4500 Lombardi Trophy odds will shorten dramatically.
