Five weeks into the 2025 NFL season, and the Bills are living up to their lofty preseason hype. The bookies made Buffalo a shock +450 favorite to win the Super Bowl before a ball was kicked this term, quite the surprise considering the fact that they haven't won the Lombardi ever before. In fact, they haven't even featured in the Big Game since they lost four in a row back in the 1990s.
The Bills Remain Super Bowl Favorites
With reigning MVP Josh Allen under center, the Highmark outfit burst out of the blocks, winning their first four games of the new campaign. However, a shock defeat to the New England Patriots on home turf in week five has set some alarm bells ringing. That said, with the perennial monsters from Baltimore and Kansas City not just wavering but tumbling, the Bills remain the houseâs pick for Super Bowl glory for the first time in an era.
Yet, for every bases-loaded grand slam, thereâs a whiff that a season could rapidly unravel, especially when it comes to the Bills, a team that seemingly knows nothing but heartbreak. For those holding Bills futures, the swelling optimism is intoxicating, but the scars of seasons past demand pragmatism. How can bettors transform market momentum into financial protection? How can hope be tamed by preparation?
Luckily, there are betting calculators out there that can help guarantee, or at least help garner a better chance of securing, a win. If you backed the Bills on numerous fronts at the start of the season, now might be the perfect moment to revisit your strategy. Thunderpickâs arbitrage calculatorâa must-have tool for any serious bettorâcan help you hedge your bets and secure a win on two-way markets.
But what bets should you place to attempt to cover yourself somewhat? Let's take a look.
Hedge with the Patriots in the AFC East
Octoberâs chill brought more than falling leaves to Buffalo; it brought a divisional wake-up call. After storming to a perfect 4-0 record, the Bills welcomed a New England Patriots team finally on the up following Tom Brady's departure to Highmark in week five. Despite being 7.5-point underdogs heading into the contest, the Pats left with a win that rattled the AFC East pecking order. Suddenly, the narrative has shiftedâthe record champions sit at +350 to steal the divisional crown, courtesy of a softening schedule and a defense finding form.
Hereâs where seasoned bettors separate excitement from expectation. Letâs say youâre locked in with a futures wager on the Bills to win the AFC East at relatively short odds. Watchful rather than wishful, you consider the Patriotsâ price of +350, still outsiders but the only real threats to Buffalo's divisional hopes. Run both selections, the Pats at +350 and the Bills at whatever price you backed them at in preseason, through the arbitrage betting calculator to determine a stake to place on New England in a bid to cover any potential upset.
Should Drake Maye and Co. swoop in to spring the shock, any potential losses on Buffalo will be negated. If the Bills hold serve, your initial futures ticket shines all the brighter, but your secondary wager acts as a safety net, not a surrender.
Counter the Chiefsâ Threat for AFC Supremacy
Does any franchise haunt the Billsâ psyche more than Kansas City? Patrick Mahomes remains the lyricist of Buffaloâs playoff blues, eliminating their fellow AFC rivals in four of the last five postseasons, culminating in last season's brutal Conference Championship game at Arrowhead.
This seasonâs 2-3 Chiefs wobble has shifted the odds, but not the underlying danger. The latest breakdowns suggest a conference still swirling with upstartsâIndianapolis and Jacksonville among themâwhile perennial contenders such as the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals have fallen by the wayside somewhat. Even so, when the postseason curtain rises, thereâs one specter every AFC hopeful must confront: a Kansas City Chiefs side that consistently delivers under the brightest lights.
Suppose youâve put $400 on a Bills AFC Championship winner bet. The Chiefs, perched as +550 second-favorites behind the +125 Bills, tempt as both threat and opportunity. Hereâs where the arbitrage calculator earns its keep: A $75 hedge nets $412.50 should Kansas City summon its annual playoff resurgence. With the calculator doing its thing and thriving, you can now back the two favorites to win the AFC and guarantee a win, taking full advantage of the value provided by the Bills' odds shrinking down to almost even money.
Sideline Mayfield as MVP Insurance
After a pair of dazzling seasons, Buffalo's sensational quarterback Josh Allen is the man atop most people's MVP trackers. Last season, he won the coveted prize for the first time in his career after edging out Lamar Jackson, while this term, odds on him successfully going back-to-back are shrinking by the week. One of the primary reasons for that is that the aforementioned Jackson, as well as last season's passing leader Joe Burrow, are both injured and on the shelf indefinitely.
Enter Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers' unlikely talisman, whose explosive reawakening finds him sitting at +1400âa wild card in every sense. The former Heisman trophy winner has arguably been the best quarterback in the league so far this term, but his lofty 14/1 odds in the MVP betting market don't yet reflect just how dazzling Mayfield has been on the field.
Per the numbers, Mayfield is crafting a compelling narrative. He ranks top five in QBR, top six in touchdowns, andâcruciallyâheâs thriving as elite passers limp off center stage. The smart bettor eyes their MVP ticket on Allenâmaybe $100 at preseason odds of 4/1âand knows the storm could swiftly shift. Entering those stakes into an arbitrage betting calculator alongside a $50 Mayfield flier, you see the beauty of asymmetry: $700 materializes if the Bucsâ revival finds its Hollywood ending, while Allen's victory still means you win, just less extravagantly.
