Patrick Mahomes came back from a torn ACL looking as if he'd never left. Kansas City routed Denver 31-10 on opening Monday night, and by Week 4, it was 4-0, having trailed the Raiders 13-10 entering the fourth quarter in Las Vegas before piling on 20 points to win 30-27. Mahomes threw for 225 yards and two touchdowns, Kenneth Walker III ran for 177 and two more, and Tyquan Thornton caught five passes for 111 yards and two scores before dislocating his ankle.
San Francisco looks even sturdier. Wins over the Rams, Dolphins, Cardinals, and Broncos have produced a league-best +58 point differential; Brock Purdy hasn't been sacked, and Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and a rib-battered Mike Evans keep feeding his early MVP case. Buffalo led the league in scoring through three weeks as Josh Allen accounted for 11 touchdowns, six on the ground, before a 29-26 home loss to New England ended with an interception he admitted he should have thrown away.
Four other teams can match the impressive start to the season that the aforementioned big boys are in the midst of. However, the record isn't the full story, and fading them throughout the rest of the campaign could well be the play.
The Raiders
Three wins in three weeks for a team that won three games all of last season is quite the turnaround. Kirk Cousins threw three touchdowns in a 27-13 opener against Miami, two to Ashton Jeanty; Jeremy Chinn's 43-yard fumble return set up the decisive score in a 26-14 win at the Chargers; and four fourth-quarter takeaways turned a 27-16 deficit in New Orleans into a 35-27 win, with Brock Bowers catching 10 balls for 116 yards. Then Kansas City came to town.
Cousins went 31 of 52 for 365 yards, but the run game managed 2.8 yards a carry, and his interception on the penultimate play ended it. Despite them having three wins already throughout their first four, online betting sites have still set their win total at a meagre 8.5. The latest odds from Sportaza online casino and sports betting site currently make the over side of that line an even-money outside bet, with the under priced at -133, indicating that they think the Raiders will manage five or fewer wins throughout the rest of the season.
In preseason, that win line was set at just 5.5 wins under first-year coach Klint Kubiak, and rookie corner Hezekiah Masses already has three interceptions, but takeaways don't arrive on a schedule. Can a 38-year-old quarterback, with No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza waiting in the wings, carry this for 17 weeks? After week 5, Buffalo, the Rams, San Francisco, and Seattle all arrive within five weeks. That's the wall.
Our call: 8-9, no playoffs.
The Browns
After a 34-10 loss in Jacksonville, Deshaun Watson went 24 of 30 for 238 yards and two touchdowns in a 23-19 upset in Tampa, threw both touchdowns to Harold Fannin Jr. in a 21-18 win over Carolina, then set up Andre Szmyt's career-long 56-yarder with 10 seconds left to beat Pittsburgh 27-24 in Week 4, with Grant Delpit intercepting Aaron Rodgers on the final snap.
Three straight go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter. Three wins by a combined 10 points. A point differential of minus-14. How long can a team keep winning games it's losing with four minutes to play?
The bookies set their win line at 6.5 after Myles Garrett was traded to the Rams, and Mason Graham's four sacks softened that blow, but Graham (MCL and ankle sprains) and Mike Hall Jr. (ankle) were both ruled out against the Jets in Week 5.
Szmyt has made 22 straight field goals; close-game records regress, and so do kickers. Baltimore follows, then Pittsburgh away in Week 8 and Houston in Week 10. Our call: 7-10, no playoffs.
The Giants
On paper, the Giants are 3-1 and alone atop the NFC East. In reality, they've outscored opponents by just three points.
The opener was genuinely impressive: Cam Skattebo's opening-drive touchdown and two Isaiah Likely scores sank Dallas 28-20. Then Jaxson Dart's knee gave way on the first series of a 28-6 loss to the Rams, a season-ending injury, and Brian Burns tore his ACL in a 12-7 win over Tennessee. Week 4's 36-24 win over Arizona needed Deonte Banks's 98-yard interception return on fourth-and-goal as time expired, with Jameis Winston throwing three touchdowns and two picks and Malik Nabers catching six balls for 112 yards.
John Harbaugh has stuck with Winston even after acquiring J.J. McCarthy from Minnesota. Jevón Holland's three September interceptions earned him NFC Defensive Player of the Month, but a defence with one sack through three games can't live on goal-line picks.
They have upcoming clashes against underperforming sides in the form of Houston, Philadelphia, and Washington, and winning at least two of those will be crucial to their potential playoff hopes. Our call: 7-10, no playoffs.
The Vikings
What does 4-0 mean when the offence has scored just one solitary touchdown in three weeks? Carson Wentz threw three touchdowns, two to Justin Jefferson, after Kyler Murray's concussion 11 plays into a 39-22 opener against Green Bay, and then the points began to dry up, even if the wins didn't.
Wentz started again in a 9-3 grind in Chicago. Kyler Murray returned for a 23-16 win in Tampa built on Myles Price's 86-yard punt return and Jordan Addison's 41-yard touchdown, though Jefferson left with an ankle injury. Last week's 15-10 win over winless Miami was all Will Reichard, with five field goals and 31 straight makes, plus T.J. Hockenson's 13 catches for 119 yards; the Vikings went 0 for 3 in the red zone.
Brian Flores's defence has allowed 51 points in four games, and Dallas Turner has five and a half sacks, making this the most defensible start of the four. But Tampa and Miami were both winless when Minnesota beat them. After the bye, come litmus tests in the form of Detroit away, Buffalo on Monday night, and Green Bay at Lambeau. Our call: 10-7, the last wild card, and an early exit.
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