Throughout an NFL season, the best teams usually end up winning enough games to make the playoffs and compete for a spot in the Super Bowl. But on any given Sunday, just about anything can happen. Therefore, it’s easy to get burned if you don’t take a close look at all possible factors. Most of the time, traditional football stats can tell you the better team. However, it’s important to go beyond the basics and consider other factors that shouldn’t be ignored before making an NFL bet.
The Betting Line
The betting odds and spread of a game should be the first things you look at. You might think one team is better than the other, but are you confident that team can cover the spread? That’s perhaps the most critical question before placing a bet. Even after you decide on the team you like, it’s often worthwhile to do some line shopping because not all sportsbooks have the same spread and odds. This means perusing several of the best sports betting sites to find odds that are favorable for the bet you want to place.
Home-Field Advantage
Bettors should never ignore what team is at home and what team is on the road. Traditionally, being at home is said to be worth about three points. Even if evidence suggests that home-field advantage has been worth less than three points in recent years, the difference is far from negligible. There is a clear advantage to being the home team that should never be overlooked.
Injury Report
Injuries always play a role in NFL games. Teams that are healthy and can play their best players will have a distinct edge. Therefore, it’s a good idea to monitor injuries closely throughout the week to see if any key players could be absent. In fact, waiting until the active and inactive players are announced on game day can be a good idea. Keep in mind that unless a quarterback is hurt, the spread won’t be impacted too much by injuries. However, if multiple key players are hurt or a team has multiple injuries at one position, it could create a weakness that they wouldn’t otherwise have.
Rest and Travel
It’s always good to remember that pro athletes aren’t robots. They can be affected by a lack of rest or a lot of travel, like anyone else. This is another reason why home-field advantage matters; home teams don’t have to worry about traveling. Road teams that had to travel a long way or change time zones can sometimes struggle, especially for an early game. Likewise, if one team has had more rest because of a bye week, that gives them an advantage that could end up making a difference.
Motivation
Once again, pro athletes aren’t robots. The more talented team doesn’t always win because the other team is more motivated and wants to win more. This is why teams in a desperate, must-win situation often pull off a surprising win. It’s also why games between division rivals are often closer than expected, because both teams want to win badly. Of course, some of the best coaches in NFL history always find a way to motivate their team, which is another factor to keep in mind.
Weather
Last but not least, the weather conditions of a game should be taken into account. Granted, games early in the season typically have favorable weather. But the later we get in the season, the more rain, wind, and even snow can play a factor. The key is recognizing what teams are best equipped to handle adverse weather conditions based on their personnel and coaching. Those are the teams to favor if the weather becomes a factor.
